da luck： Five or six years ago, the idea of a striker one day breaking Alan Shearer’s seemingly untouchable record of 260 Premier League goals was almost unimaginable.
da fezbet： But suddenly, two prime candidates have emerged in Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, strikers with almost a centenary of top flight strikes under their belts before the age of 25. Those potent returns are symptomatic throughout a division that’s seeing scoring records decimated at an unprecedented rate; of the 20 clubs involved in the top flight last season, only four had record individual returns for a single season pre-dating 2009/10.
It’s quite staggering, especially when combined with the fact three clubs have scored more than 100 goals in a single season over the last eight years – something that had never happened in the Premier League previously.
So, are we simply enjoying a golden era of goalscoring talent in English football’s lead division, or have goals become easier to come by?
A brief history of scoring goals in the Premier League
The first three seasons of the Premier League were a complete mess in goalscoring terms, which is perhaps what you’d expect of a newly-formed division enjoying unprecedented financial influx. Tellingly, the percentage of away goals fluctuated between 39% and 45% – the lowest and highest ratios in Premier League history – and goals from the five top scorers between 7.7% and 11.6% – the lowest and second-highest ratios in Premier League history.
Likewise, while the inaugural Premier League campaign produced a record 1222 goals across 462 games, no single player scored more than 22. In comparison, the following two would see 12 players breach the 20-goal mark, and two net 34.
But then came a watershed moment. The switch to the 38-game season, solidifying the competitiveness and closeness of the league, made goals harder to come by. Individual returns inevitably reduced but so did goals per game, dropping to an all-time low of 2.5 during the 1998/99 season.
Between 1995 and 2001 though, two long-term trends stood out; the percentage of away goals in the Premier League steadily rose from 41% to 44% – averaging out at 41.7% – and the percentage of goals scored by the top five scorers each season averaged out at above 10%, a slight rise from the opening three campaigns.
The next two eras of Premier League goalscoring are best defined by the polarising philosophies of two Chelsea managers. Jose Mourinho’s original Blues side remain the record-holders for fewest goals conceded in a single season, just 15 in 2004/05, whereas Carlo Ancelotti’s produced a record number of goals scored by a single club, 103 in 2009/10, and that’s reflected in the statistics.
Mourinho’s first season saw the division return to its all-time low of 2.5 goals per game and as the rest of the league adopted the tactical trend of trading one striker for a defensive midfielder, that’s where the average pretty much stayed for the next four years. But just like Mourinho’s ideals, Ancelotti’s attacking mantra became infectious too, especially when coupled with the Sheik-funded rise of Manchester City.
In the five seasons on from summer 2009, goals per game stood steady at 2.8, returning to the highs of the first three Premier League campaigns. That includes a 2013/14 campaign in which two teams, Liverpool and City, breached the hundred-goal mark for the very first time, as Luis Suarez matched Shearer’s long-standing record of 31 goals in a 38-game campaign.
So, has it become easier to score goals?
All the statistics suggest it has become easier to score goals, especially for centre-forwards at top clubs. During the last eight seasons compared to the seven previous, the number of goals per game has risen by 0.2, the number of players scoring more than 20 goals per season has increased by one and the number of teams scoring more than 80 goals per season has almost tripled to 1.5.
In fact, the rises are across the board; the percentage of goals by the five top scorers and the percentage of away goals have both escalated as well. In other words, there have been more goals and top-class centre-forwards have scored a bigger proportion of them.
There’s anecdotal evidence too, perhaps the most obvious being the end of English football’s conveyor belt of world-class defenders. Compared to an era in which the Three Lions boasted John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Jamie Carragher, Ledley King, Sol Campbell and Jonathan Woodgate, Gareth Southgate now has only the likes of John Stones, Gary Cahill, Michael Keane and Harry Maguire to choose from.
While other world-class defenders have been imported into the league, that’s symptomatic of how defensive standards have steadily changed with greater emphasis placed on attack. At the same time, the gap between the top clubs and the rest of the division – barring Leicester City’s miraculous season – has steadily grown. The logical assumption, then, is that it’s become easier for strikers at the top clubs to score goals.
Why has it become easier to score goals?
There are many factors at work, some of which have already been drawn on annd all of which create picture of strikers at top clubs having more opportunities and fewer obstacles to finding the net than ever before. Here’s a look at the four most significant.
The lone front-man
A tactical trend that owes much to Jose Mourinho’s first spell at Chelsea and still lives on to this day. The maths here is relatively simple; whereas two strikers were once expected to tally around 20-odd goals between them, that responsibility now rests on one man – albeit aided by wide players and offensive-minded midfielders.
Attacks are now geared towards a single focal point, so more chances come their way as the whole team focuses on supplying just one central striker. Accordingly, individual returns and the percentage of goals scored by the top five goalscorers have steadily risen to their highest levels since the era of the 42-game season.
The pressure to build entertaining teams
A consequence of the ever-increased finance available to Premier League clubs and changes in philosophical fashion. Whereas defensive organisation and resilience was praised during Jose Mourinho’s first stint in England, similar tricks being used at Manchester United are now a negative stigmatism. There are other clear examples as well of how tastes have changed.
Full-backs are now amongst the most offensive and dynamic roles on the pitch, to the extent that many are deployed as wing-backs instead, centre-halves are expected to play out of the back and defensive standards have inevitably slipped. That’s given teams more room to exploit on the counter-attack, more mistakes in possession to take advantage of and less obstacles to deal with when they reach the final third.
Counter-attacking and the diminish of home advantage
It can be seen in Europe as well as over the last 25 years of the Premier League; home advantage just isn’t what it used to be. Fitter, stronger and faster players can capitalise on the space behind opposition defences like never before and for varying reasons, counter-attacking game-plans have become more effective than ever.
Leicester City provide perhaps the most obvious example of how even teams without top-level quality in every department can be devastating on the break when set up in the right way. Overall though, the increase in away goals is simply an un-ignorable trend.
Since 1995/96 the proportion has steadily risen, even though the number of goals per game has suffered peaks and troughs, and the average is now even higher than the turbulent first three seasons. A stronger likelihood of scoring goals away from home inevitably means more opportunities to find the net.
The emergence of the big six/big seven
Perhaps the simplest explanation is that there are more top-quality teams in the Premier League than ever before due to the rises of Chelsea and Manchester City, all blessed with the finance to bring in not only top level strikers but also top level creative midfielders to get the absolute best out of them.
Last term, there was a 21-goal and 15-point gap between seventh and eighth place, and those spearheading attacks from the mini-league at the division’s summit will find inevitably goals against the rest of the division easy to come by. There’s nearly always a notable gap between the best and the best of the rest in any given Premier League season, but the vast difference in recent years is that the ‘best’ camp is now six or seven teams strong.
Back in the early era of the Premier League, there were only three or four teams who could claim that status – and only three or four strike forces who could benefit from it in the same way.